WeeklyWatch – Tariff ruling triggers trade reaction

24th February 2026

Key Takeaways

• The US Supreme Court rules on the “Liberation Day” tariffs, giving way to more trade and market uncertainty

• Bank rate-cut expectations weigh on UK market performance

• BrewDog – the reasons why retail investors will end up empty-handed

Stock Take

Tariff two-step and trade uncertainty

On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs illegal. The resulting market activity led to a twin-speed US market in a week that had remained fairly subdued up until that point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week over 1% higher – the latter delivered its first positive weekly returns since January.

There was a rise in trade and tariff-sensitive companies once the Court had made its ruling, giving a boost to retailers and luxury manufacturers. Tech shares also rose. The Equity Strategist at St. James’s Place, Carlota Estragues Lopez, said:

“The Court’s decision to reject Trump’s tariffs comes at a time when investors were already pricing in a higher risk premium for US assets because of concerns over the level of AI spending. This latest move further dampened sentiment towards US equities and saw the US dollar fall back into weaker territory.”

Despite the decision, tariffs aren’t completely off the agenda for the US administration, which doesn’t erase uncertainty for investors. The president’s response was to impose a blanket 10% global tariff; this was increased to 15% over the weekend. The latest tariffs will expire in 150 days unless Congress decides to renew them. The Chief Economist at St. James’s Place, Hetal Mehta, said:

“Tariffs are still a very core part of the way Trump wants to operate. It is also about attempting to keep the effective tariff rate steady.”

The Court didn’t provide any insight into what will happen with the $150 billion+ in tariff revenues that have already been collected. If tariff “lawfare” continues to be used as a method by Trump, trade clarity will continue to elude investors – and likely create more adverse sentiment for companies and markets. However, as Mehta adds:

“It’s worth remembering that even with the 15% tariffs there are a number of exemptions. For example, the UK with an existing 10% tariff rate with the US probably won’t see this go to 15%”.

With tariff news taking centre stage, it overshadowed data news that revealed the fourth quarter 2025 economic growth (GDP) to be 1.4% in comparison to the quarter before – way off the expected 2.8% figure. The prime suspect: the six-week federal government shutdown and the resulting decrease in government spending. Once this had been factored in, the overall performance revealed a steadier track.

Rate cuts on the cards for the UK

Recent UK data showed poor performance for job numbers and growth, but it wasn’t all doom and gloom. The FTSE 100 finished the week over 2% stronger and the index drew close to its all-time high. The fact that shares are showing a positive response to bad news may seem counterintuitive, but often the relationship between the health of the economy and stock market returns isn’t particularly positive. This is largely due to economic data releases being based on historic events, while stock markets reflect future expectations.

Now that UK unemployment is at a near five-year high, and taking into account anaemic economic growth across the last quarter of 2025 and headline inflation falling, predictions are leaning towards a March rate cut by the Bank of England.

The FTSE 100 is made up of companies with major operations beyond the UK, which is another catalyst for the index. There’s better demand in the US, Asia and parts of Europe compared to the UK, and this is unlikely to change for the rest of the year. Although this is positive for bigger UK companies, smaller companies – which are more reliant on the domestic market – don’t feel the benefit. It explains why UK small caps are underperforming, even though they have relatively low valuations.

Where did it all go wrong for BrewDog?

Big craft beer business, BrewDog, have confirmed that they’re exploring selling off the business following continuous losses. If any transaction takes place, it’s likely that the 200,000+ retail shareholders – some subscribing through the initial ‘Equity for Punks’ investment scheme in 2009 – will probably be left with nothing.

Although it’s not a listed company, the high-profile and brand presence of BrewDog across international breweries, bars and hotels makes their journey an interesting yet sobering story. Possibly its biggest culprit was an investment made by private equity firm TSG Partners in exchange for a 22.3% stake in the company.

While the deal valued BrewDog at £1 billion, it also made TSG Partners a preferred shareholder, ranking them ahead of the equity punks. TSG Partners were promised a return worth much more than their initial investment in the event that BrewDog was sold or listed on the stock market.

In 2021, BrewDog was valued at around £2 billion, but it hasn’t been profitable since 2019. Not only did this reflect company-specific concerns, but also the industry trends that weren’t working in favour of the company. Beer sales have decreased due to consumers spending less on nights out or reducing their alcohol consumption. Additionally, more competition has resulted in more ‘edgy’ beer options in both pubs and supermarkets. Furthermore, negative publicity concerning the management style has been damaging to the brand’s image. Together, it’s had a significant impact on BrewDog’s value, but it hasn’t impacted their financial obligation to TSG. To conclude, BrewDog now owes more to TSG than they’re currently worth, therefore eradicating any value for retail investors.

One of the big problems for BrewDog’s retail investors is that there is no formalised way of buying or selling shares – even more so when the company’s conditions deteriorated. If you’ll pardon the pun, a holding in the company was ‘illiquid’. Retail investors have no way of cutting their losses.

Wealth Check

Investment scams claim thousands of victims

Last year, investment scams caught thousands of people out, according to the latest data from the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS), the independent dispute resolution service.1

Around 31,300 complaints were received by the ombudsman service from consumers concerning fraud and scams in 2025, and online investment scams were the largest source of the complaints.

Approximately 20,000 complaints came as a result of people making authorised payments as part of a scam; the figure includes authorised push payment scams. These scams usually involve criminals manipulating victims to send them money directly from their bank account or using their debit or credit card. Out of these complaints, over half related to online investment scams.

Online investment scams usually have origins on social media and tend to promote high-return opportunities and deliver fast and guaranteed profits.

Other types of fraud and scam cases that were seen by FOS last year included employment scams and unrecognised bank transactions.

Four tips to evade scams:

  • “It sounds too good to be true” – the likelihood of this is probably true. Red flags to look out for include “risk-free” claims, guaranteed returns or bonuses for quick investing.
  • Don’t click the links in an unsolicited message. Scammers usually target victims through emails, social media and messaging apps.
  • Be aware of pressure tactics. Scammers push an urgent agenda to try to get victims to act quickly in transferring money or making an investment.
  • Never share your personal information, ID documents, bank login details, card information or passcodes.

Source
1Financial Ombudsman Service (19 February 2026). Financial Ombudsman Service warns people to be on high alert for online investment and employment scams. Available at: www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk/news/financial-ombudsman-service-warns-people-high-alert-online-investment-employment-scams (Accessed 23 February 2026).

In the Picture

What the World Uncertainty Index reveals about today’s market resilience

The chart below shows the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and that uncertainty is higher than at any point in its monitored history. But despite these figures, stock markets are at near all-time highs. So, why the disconnect between the two?

The WUI was developed by economists at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and uses a simple calculation methodology to measure uncertainty. It works by counting the frequency of the words like “uncertain” or “uncertainty” in quarterly country reports that are published by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

But when it comes to explaining the high stock markets, the IMF considers several factors. Inflation and interest rates are getting lower and there is adaptability in the private sector. Tariff impact has been less than first feared and the financial backdrop (as it currently stands) is supportive.

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SJP Approved 23/02/2026